Macro Brief: Polymarket's 31% BTC Upside, Neutral Stablecoin Drift, and the Memory-Supply Rotation

Institutional risk appetite remains constrained as Bitcoin's August upside is priced at a sub-one-third probability, stablecoin telemetry prints neutral, and the equity tape is rewarding memory-chip supply chains. Positioning centers on range-bound Layer 1 accumulation with strict drawdown governance.