Escalating US-Iran tensions, a 50% probability of hawkish FOMC outcomes, and South Korean equity contagion create a high-volatility macro regime. Stablecoin flows remain neutral, suggesting institutional capital is sidelined ahead of the Fed decision.
Bitcoin holds $64K support as FOMC decision looms; long-term holder ratio at all-time high signals bear market exhaustion; capital flows neutral, awaiting catalyst.
Ahead of the first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Bitcoin holds $65.5K amid Extreme Fear and a neutral stablecoin signal. The market is pricing in a hawkish hold, with risk assets vulnerable to a sharp repricing if the tone deviates. Tactical positioning favors DeFi and AI infrastructure as structural order blocks, while BTC shorts are the high-conviction hedge.
